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Opinion: Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Yatseniuk can win presidential election

Posted by the Editor on May 28, 2009


News / 28 May 2009 | 17:40

Opinion: Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Yatseniuk can win presidential election

If the presidential election in Ukraine took place next Sunday, Party of Regions leader Victor Yanukovych, BYuT leader Yulia Tymoshenko, and ex-Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Arseniy Yatseniuk would get the biggest support of electors, according to UNIAN.

These are the results of a poll carried out by Sophia Center for Social Studies and presented at a press conference in UNIAN on Thursday by Oleksander Levtsun, director of Center’s sociological programs department.

In particular, some 24.8% of those polled would vote for Victor Yanukovych, some 16.6% – for Yulia Tymoshenko, and some 14.7% – for Arseniy Yatseniuk.

At the same time, some 3.7% of respondents would vote for Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko, some 3.5% – for Verkhovna Rada Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, some 2.1% – for President of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko, some 1.3% – for Svoboda leader Oleh Tyahnybok, some 1.1% – for ex-Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko, and some 1.0% – for Serhiy Tigipko. Other candidacies would receive less than 1% of votes.

According to the results of the poll, if Victor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko would enter the second round of the presidential election, the Party of Regions leader would have better chances to win. Thus, in the second round, some 35% of those polled are ready to vote for Victor Yanukovych, and some 29.6% – for Yulia Tymoshenko.

At the same time, an overwhelming majority of respondents is skeptical about the chances of Victor Yushchenko to be re-elected for the second term: some 79.9% of those polled are confident that he has no chances, some 14.6% believe he has a little chance, and some 2.9% believe that Victor Yushchenko may become the President of Ukraine for the second time.

The poll was carried out on May 13-22 in all the regions of Ukraine. On the whole, 2013 respondents were involved. The error margin does not exceed 2.2%.

ForUm

One Response to “Opinion: Yanukovych, Tymoshenko, Yatseniuk can win presidential election”

  1. For-ua said

    The headline should read Yushchenko at less then 2% can not be re-elected to a second term of office. Calls for Yushchenko to resign

    Ukraine’s President, Viktor Yushchenko’s support drops to below 2%

    Recent public opinion Poll held last week has Yushchenko on 1.6% placing him well beyond poll position and out of contention to win a second term of Office. Yushchenko who in 2005 enjoyed 52% support has been on a step decline with his public support dropping even lower the in previous polls one month ago when he received 2.2%.

    The main issue confronting the President is not if he loses office but when and how?

    According to the poll there are only three main contenders to become Ukraine’s next Head of State Viktor Yanukovych (24.8%), Yulia Tmochenko (16.6%) and Arseniy Yatseniuk (14.7%).

    The Spoiler Effect

    All other candidates are out of contention and instead of playing a positive roll on the outcome they have a negative roll minor Candidates such as Petro Symonenko (Communist Party – 3.3%), Volodymyr Lytvyn (Parliamentary Speaker 3.5%) and Victor Yushchenko (President 1.6%) are what is commonly referred to as “Spoiler Candidates”

    Under Ukraine’s two round Presidential voting system, where only the top two candidates face off on a second round ballot, spoiler candidates deny voters deny their supporters a direct say in who should be the main candidate for the election. They take away votes form the three highest candidates in the process they act against their won best interest. Its a race to the top and if you can hold back a candidate from getting to the top two then you allow the others to win.

    A Better Alternative

    A more positive option would be to introduce Preferential voting. One Round – at half the cost of the two round ballot (Saving over 100 million dollars) Minor Candidates instead of having a negative impact on the outcome of the election play a positive role. They can recommend which alternative candidates votes support. Votes for minor candidates are redistributed according to voters nominated preference. If no single candidate has 50% or more votes, the candidate with the least votes is excluded and their votes re-distributed according to the voters nominated preference. This process is continued until one candidate has 50% or more votes.

    This means that Yushchenko supporters will have a say on who is their preferred candidate as opposed to wasting their votes. They can decide for example to support Yatseniuk. This could see Yatseniuk out poll Yulia Tymoshenko in which case Yulia Tymoshenko supporters will then decide who will be elected Yatseniuk or Yanukovych.

    Under the current two round voting system (At a cost of over 100 millions dollars per round) Yushchenko’s supporters will have no say on who the two main candidates will be. Assuming that Yushchenko’s 1.6% of voters would support Yatseniuk ahead of Yulia Tymoshenko they would along with Lytvyn and other minor candidate supporters would play a deciding role in the outcome of the election. King makers instead of sacrificial pawns.

    The other significant advantage of introducing a preferential voting system is cost (saving over 100 millions dollars by holding only one round of voting and even more important with a one round system the results of the election is known in days as opposed to months.

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