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Tymoshenko won the first set but the play has not finished – experts

Posted by the Editor on October 31, 2008


News / 31 October 2008 | 17:30

Tymoshenko won the first set but the play has not finished – experts

The fact that the parliament turned down draft legislation to pay for the snap poll does not mean that the election will not take place. This is the result of a poll of political scientists and experts carried out by Center for Political Values Studies.

The center addressed political experts with a question: “Does the failure to pass legislation to pay for the snap poll mean that it will not take place?”

Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, head of Penta Center for Political Studies, said that the topic was not finished. According to him, in this or that way, the President still has an opportunity to “play the theme of dissolving the Verkhovna Rada”.

“If there is no coalition – there is a reason to dissolve Rada. How to solve the problem of financing the election? I think not only the President will think over that but also the Party of Regions, which is now the most interested in the snap poll. Only the first set has finished. The game goes on”, he said.

Political scientist Victor Nebozhenko, head of Ukrainian Barometer service, does not believe that the inefficient voting on the snap poll financing will mean the failure of the idea. V.Nebozhenko believes there are yet other variants to find financing for the electoral campaign. “It means only that a part of politicians, allies of Victor Yushchenko, are afraid that they will not get into the future lists. They are afraid that the election will result badly for them”, he said.

“By the highest standards, it was the victory of Yulia Tymoshenko, the only one who publicly opposed to the election. It’s difficult to say that somebody was defeated, because I can’t understand the Party of Regions, which wanted the snap poll very much, and which would really benefit from the election. But I can understand lawmakers from Our Ukraine, who suspect that some 70% of them will not penetrate into the next electoral list. Objectively, this round was won by Tymoshenko”, he said.

Mykhaylo Pohrebynskiy, director of the center for political studies and conflictology claimed that the failure of voting means that the snap poll will not take place in December. “We can be sure about that. As for the future, a snap poll in January or even in spring does not look probable as well. The forecasts are not so unambiguous as one-two weeks ago”, the political scientist said.

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9 Responses to “Tymoshenko won the first set but the play has not finished – experts”

  1. Vic said

    Yushchenko has no political future and as far as his “duty to the constitution and country” – all he can do here is rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic – you know its all but over when there is a definite vote of no confidence from the people @ 4%, a lack of confidence from your own party and friends such as ex Polish ex president who recently said Yushchenko has shot himself in the foot.

    Calling for the elections without a properly thought through strategy amounts to political suicide – and the problems accumulate non surmountably – of funding the elections can’t happen without parliament and without funding he can’t dissolve the parliament – to be or not to be? that is the problem

    And a broader coalition with POR will not work either for our troubled president who like the Prince of Denmark is running out of options – Yushchenko and his allied members have no chance of gaining extra seats in VR. Yushchenko is currently around 4% and the OU 1.8% Yatsenuik 2.3% and Chernovetsky < 1%. The pro Yushchenko supporters would in fact gain no new seats but more likely to lose seats! Even if Kirilenko’s 1.8% and Baloga’s <.5% will not save Yushchenko.
    These parties look in serious trouble simply passing the 3% umbrella.

    Also to align with his long time friend Ahkmetov + POR, Yushchenko would seriously undermine his Orange and Nationalist support base who would see this move as nothing short of treason since the POR support for the Independence of the seperatist states in Georgia, and he would never settle for the role of back seat driver!

    Yes like Macbeth Yushchenko has shot himself in the foot and Timoshenko edging ahead with much larger support of the two biggest parties leaving Lytvin the McDuth delivering the death blow.
    (apologies to Shakespeare).

  2. Peter Crosby said

    There’s an interesting issue here which hasn’t had much of an airing yet: the majorit yof OU are probably not in favour of an election right now because they will definitely lose seats. So we have the President pushing for elections – perhaps as a matter of principle and duty – being opposed by his party.

  3. Ukrayinska said

    Peter my thoughts exactly. If anything this is a vote of no confidence in Yushchenko’s policy and decree. Our Ukraine members know that is fresh elections are held then they will lose office and gain nothing. This is a major blow for Yushchenko. meanwhile Yulia remains in government as a minority government, as long as the elections are not held and the parliament has not passed a motion of no confidence.

    Party of Regions has everything to gain from fresh elections but the delay does not harm them either. The longer the stand-off continues the greater the division the deeper the hole. With the economy facing a serious melt down Yushchenko will be a ready target for having created the political crisis in the first place. The closer the election, if it is held at all, to the Presidential election the greater the pressure to hold simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections.

    Yushchenko, in spite his efforts to try and shift blame on to others, has failed to stabilize the cash liquidity/confidence crisis facing Ukrainian financial sector. The longer this pressure remains the Ukraine faces a potential for a major collapse in the property market as banks and individuals are forced to sell property to stay afloat.

    Yushchenko timing in pulling out of the governing coalition has made matters worst as political instability is the main cause of loss of confidence. There is no way the President can escape the fall-out of his actions.

    Party of Regions knows this and for that reason they will bid their time for while. If an election is held then Living will hold the trump card. He would be in a position to become Speaker and later President. Lytvyn, like Party of Regions, holding back the date for the election will not diminish his chances of success either. They would fair better in fairer Spring weather. Expect the poll to be held in March.

    Last time Ukraine faced this same dilemma the US stepped in and offer to fund Ukraine the cost of holding the election. I wonder if Yushchenko will try and find alternative sources and fund the election directly without going though the Parliament. He will have to do something or face mother loss of confidence in his Presidency. Yushchenko has drug such a deep hole for himself and his fledgling party that it is unlikely that he can find a way to crawl out.

    Yushchenko’s best option would be to resign whilst Yats holds the postion of speaker.

  4. pysar said

    So we have the President pushing for elections – perhaps as a matter of principle and duty – being opposed by his party.

    Peter what hope has a President got if his own party votes against him?

    And no point in blaming Tymoshenko, Symonenko, Lutsenko and others for his problems.

  5. Peter Crosby said

    Indeed. The best I can say for Yush is that in calling an election at a time when his and his party’s popularity was at an all-time low he put his duty to the constitution and country before his political future.

  6. Ukrayinska said

    I do not think you can say he has put his country ahead of him. He created the situation where the constitution gives him the right to dismiss another Parliament.

    If he was seriously concerned and acted in the best interest of Ukraine he would recognise he was part of the problem and that with such a low public opinion rating he would resign and allow someone else to assume the role of head of state.

    There is a way out of the mess Yushchenko has created

    If he resigns NOW before any election Yats takes over office the role of President and works to reforming the Parliamentary coalition and uniting Ukraine under the “Democratic” banner.

    If Yushchenko hangs on, Ukraine continues to suffer and following fresh elctions a new Parliament and speaker will elected. Yushchenko will either be forced from office or they will wait his time out and he will lose. Unless Our Ukraine join with Party of regions and demand the speakers post and then Yushchenko resigns Our Ukraine will be not more.

  7. pysar said

    All along I have repeated the saying “to be a leader you must have followers.”

    It is becoming clearer every day Yuschenko has no followers and is no leader.

    In fact if he does not resign he runs the risk of being impeached.

    That would be a sad end to the Orange Revolution four years ago.

  8. Ukrayinska said

    Vic Spot on. Although one poll showed Our Ukraine on 5% with Yats polling above the 3% barrier. I agree Yushchenko Is a “dead man walking” and the longer he stays in office the more Ukraine will suffer.

    Again I think the way out of the mess Yushchenko has created is for him to resign and allow Yats to assume the role of President. As speaker he is next in line to be head of state) Yats could patch up the “democratic coalition” positioning himself as a possible candidate for the presidency.

    Personally I do not think he is ready for this challenge BUT it is the only way in which Our Ukraine can maintain any influence and remain relevant to Ukraine’s political future,.

    The sooner Yushchenko is ousted from office the better off Ukraine will be.

  9. UkrToday said

    It appears that whilst there is not a majority of members of Parliament prepared or able to support the formation of a parliamentary majority government, a majority are not prepared to support the holding of fresh elections at this present time.

    The President’s faction OU-PSD are not united in supporting Yushchenko’s destabilization plan.

    There is nothing new about minority governments. As long as Julia has the support and vote of confidence of a majority of the Parliament Yushchenko is caught between two different points of reality.

    The Constitutional “Imperative Mandate” and the will of individual members of parliament

    In 2007 we saw Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismiss the parliament because individuals were being lobbied to support the government’s proposed constitutional reform which would have seen Ukraine adopt a democratic Parliamentary system of governance.

    This year Yushchenko is has tried a different tact. Face against with the possibility of Constitutional reform to his liking Yushchenko has had a majority of his faction agree to withdraw from the Coalition forcing a minority grouping to also abandon the faction.

    But when you add the numbers of the disenfranchised and other minor parties such as the Lytvyn bloc and the Communists, there is a majority of members of parliament that disapprove of the president calling of a snap poll.

    Unless the president can obtain the support of a majority members of parliament “Catch 22” no money no election

    Last year the US stepped in and offered to fund the election. Will they do the same this year? Unlikely as Yushchenko’s gamble is certain to back fire on him.

    The main party to benefit from fresh elections is Party of Regions because they will secure control over Government. No one else wants to spend their money and limited resources.

    Unless the President is hoping to form an alliance with Party of Regions what is his game plan other then to destabilize Ukraine and it’s economy?

    Somehow, judging by the lack of activity on the streets, I think Yushchenko has called an election that no one really wants except him and oath of Regions. It does not look like it will happen this year that’s for sure.

    We can expect a spring election with the President also facing the people of Ukraine. This was the same deal sought back in 2007. Maybe in 2009 Yushchenko will have no other alternative but to except the compromise on offer as Ukraine’s economy begins to buckle under the strain, pressure will be brought to bear ion Yushchenko to accept a compromise and early presidential elections my be the deal maker. Either Way Yushchenko is the real loser in this round if not the match.

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